**The high 89.5% market-implied probability for “No” on the Trump Space Academy beginning training by June 30, 2027, reflects the early-stage status of the initiative and the extensive timeline required for a new federal academy.** An executive order signed August 28, 2026, established a Presidential Commission chaired by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, with its report due within 120 days and an RFI for state hosts due October 26. Official plans target groundbreaking no later than 2027, a temporary campus for the first ~300 students in 2028, and a permanent facility by 2031 to support NASA, U.S. Space Force, and commercial space workforce needs tied to Artemis lunar goals and broader space domain leadership. Congressional authorization, appropriations, site selection, facility construction, faculty hiring, and curriculum development create substantial barriers to commencing formal instruction within the next nine months. Recent commission activity and state interest confirm momentum but underscore that these foundational steps typically require years, aligning trader consensus with the ambitious yet extended implementation schedule.