**Trader consensus at 99.4% "No" reflects the absence of any formal invocation of the War Powers Resolution by President Trump specifically tied to new U.S. hostilities in Yemen by the September 30, 2026 deadline.** U.S. policy has centered on the ongoing campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury and related strikes), with Yemen-related actions limited to a 2025 bombing campaign that ended in a May ceasefire and subsequent intelligence/targeting support to Saudi Arabia rather than direct U.S. combat operations. Recent reporting shows Trump declined Saudi requests for airstrikes against Houthis in September 2026, opting instead for non-kinetic assistance while prioritizing resources for the Iran theater and Strait of Hormuz operations. No 48-hour War Powers notifications or congressional authorizations specific to fresh Yemen hostilities were issued by the cutoff. This aligns with historical patterns where presidents have treated the Resolution as largely advisory or unconstitutional in practice, and with the administration’s emphasis on existing authorities (including the 2001 AUMF) alongside diplomatic and partner-led approaches. Congressional efforts have focused more on Iran-related resolutions than new Yemen measures. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a major Houthi escalation threatening U.S. or allied interests that prompts a sudden policy reversal and formal notification, or late-breaking legal/diplomatic developments that recharacterize existing support as “hostilities.” However, with the resolution date passed and no such action taken, the market’s near-certain pricing tracks the factual record of restraint on direct Yemen involvement.