Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking commands 100% trader consensus as the top AI model on April 17 in the Style Control On category of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, holding a dominant 1504 Elo score from over 16,000 human preference battles—well ahead of Gemini 2.5 Pro and xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta1 at around 1486 Elo. This positioning stems from its February 2026 launch and early April surge to #1, bolstered by superior reasoning and style adherence in real-world prompts, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. While locked in amid market close, realistic challenges include late-day vote influxes favoring yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 release, which topped Code Arena today, or leaderboard recount adjustments potentially flipping the narrow Elo gaps.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview <1%
qwen3.5-max-preview <1%
claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k <1%
$58,712 Vol.
$58,712 Vol.
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Oui
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
Non
qwen3.5-max-preview
Non
claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
Non
gemini-2.5-pro
Non
muse-spark
Non
claude-opus-4-6
Non
dola-seed-2.0-preview
Non
gpt-5.4-high
Non
gemini-3-pro
Non
grok-4.20-beta1
Non
grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning
Non
gemini-3-flash
Non
kimi-k2.5-thinking
Non
gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210
Non
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview <1%
qwen3.5-max-preview <1%
claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k <1%
$58,712 Vol.
$58,712 Vol.
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Oui
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
Non
qwen3.5-max-preview
Non
claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
Non
gemini-2.5-pro
Non
muse-spark
Non
claude-opus-4-6
Non
dola-seed-2.0-preview
Non
gpt-5.4-high
Non
gemini-3-pro
Non
grok-4.20-beta1
Non
grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning
Non
gemini-3-flash
Non
kimi-k2.5-thinking
Non
gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210
Non
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 9, 2026, 5:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking commands 100% trader consensus as the top AI model on April 17 in the Style Control On category of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, holding a dominant 1504 Elo score from over 16,000 human preference battles—well ahead of Gemini 2.5 Pro and xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta1 at around 1486 Elo. This positioning stems from its February 2026 launch and early April surge to #1, bolstered by superior reasoning and style adherence in real-world prompts, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. While locked in amid market close, realistic challenges include late-day vote influxes favoring yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 release, which topped Code Arena today, or leaderboard recount adjustments potentially flipping the narrow Elo gaps.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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