Recent September 2026 model releases have tightened the race for third-best AI lab by end of October, with Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates driving trader sentiment. Meta’s efficient agentic and coding gains, OpenAI’s claimed advances in complex reasoning and tool use, and Google’s speed-focused iterations position these labs ahead of SpaceXAI’s Grok 4.6 and Chinese contenders like Tencent and Alibaba in aggregated benchmarks and adoption signals. The near-even implied probabilities around 15–22% reflect a converged frontier where small benchmark edges, API traction, and open-weight momentum can shift rankings quickly before October resolution, while lagging flagship delivery or regulatory constraints keep lower-probability labs from gaining ground.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMeta 22%
OpenAI 17.9%
Google 18%
Tencent 14.0%
$24,301 Vol.
$24,301 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Meta
22%
OpenAI
18%
18%
Tencent
14%
Alibaba
12%
Moonshot
5%
Mistral
4%
Anthropic
4%
Z.ai
2%
ByteDance
2%
MiniMax
2%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
15%
Baidu
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
StepFun
1%
Microsoft
1%
Amazon
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Meta 22%
OpenAI 17.9%
Google 18%
Tencent 14.0%
$24,301 Vol.
$24,301 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Meta
$1,285 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$2,862 Vol.
18%
$9,233 Vol.
18%
Tencent
$506 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$4,056 Vol.
12%
Moonshot
$509 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$506 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$311 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$359 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$468 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$543 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$487 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$455 Vol.
15%
Baidu
$333 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$330 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$353 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$347 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$354 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$316 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$309 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$373 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September 2026 model releases have tightened the race for third-best AI lab by end of October, with Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates driving trader sentiment. Meta’s efficient agentic and coding gains, OpenAI’s claimed advances in complex reasoning and tool use, and Google’s speed-focused iterations position these labs ahead of SpaceXAI’s Grok 4.6 and Chinese contenders like Tencent and Alibaba in aggregated benchmarks and adoption signals. The near-even implied probabilities around 15–22% reflect a converged frontier where small benchmark edges, API traction, and open-weight momentum can shift rankings quickly before October resolution, while lagging flagship delivery or regulatory constraints keep lower-probability labs from gaining ground.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$24,301Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September 2026 model releases have tightened the race for third-best AI lab by end of October, with Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates driving trader sentiment. Meta’s efficient agentic and coding gains, OpenAI’s claimed advances in complex reasoning and tool use, and Google’s speed-focused iterations position these labs ahead of SpaceXAI’s Grok 4.6 and Chinese contenders like Tencent and Alibaba in aggregated benchmarks and adoption signals. The near-even implied probabilities around 15–22% reflect a converged frontier where small benchmark edges, API traction, and open-weight momentum can shift rankings quickly before October resolution, while lagging flagship delivery or regulatory constraints keep lower-probability labs from gaining ground.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,301Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent September 2026 model releases have tightened the race for third-best AI lab by end of October, with Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates driving trader sentiment. Meta’s efficient agentic and coding gains, OpenAI’s claimed advances in complex reasoning and tool use, and Google’s speed-focused iterations position these labs ahead of SpaceXAI’s Grok 4.6 and Chinese contenders like Tencent and Alibaba in aggregated benchmarks and adoption signals. The near-even implied probabilities around 15–22% reflect a converged frontier where small benchmark edges, API traction, and open-weight momentum can shift rankings quickly before October resolution, while lagging flagship delivery or regulatory constraints keep lower-probability labs from gaining ground.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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