Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3e box-office du week-end
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3e box-office du week-end
<44M 100.0%
44-48m <1%
48-52M$ <1%
>52 M <1%
$150,805 Vol.
$150,805 Vol.
20 avr. 2026
<44M
Oui
44-48m
Non
48-52M$
Non
>52 M
Non
<44M 100.0%
44-48m <1%
48-52M$ <1%
>52 M <1%
$150,805 Vol.
$150,805 Vol.
20 avr. 2026
<44M
$11,715 Vol.
Oui
44-48m
$7,382 Vol.
Non
48-52M$
$91,237 Vol.
Non
>52 M
$40,472 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$150,805Date de fin
20 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$150,805Date de fin
20 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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