**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPas d’introduction en bourse avant septembre 2026 100.0%
<250 M$ <1%
250 M$-300 M$ <1%
300 M$-350 M$ <1%
$18,180 Vol.
$18,180 Vol.
31 août 2026
<250 M$
Non
250 M$-300 M$
Non
300 M$-350 M$
Non
350 M$-400 M$
Non
400 M$-450 M$
Non
>450 M$
Non
Pas d’introduction en bourse avant septembre 2026
Oui
Pas d’introduction en bourse avant septembre 2026 100.0%
<250 M$ <1%
250 M$-300 M$ <1%
300 M$-350 M$ <1%
$18,180 Vol.
$18,180 Vol.
31 août 2026
<250 M$
$1,183 Vol.
Non
250 M$-300 M$
$1,113 Vol.
Non
300 M$-350 M$
$1,742 Vol.
Non
350 M$-400 M$
$837 Vol.
Non
400 M$-450 M$
$629 Vol.
Non
>450 M$
$1,136 Vol.
Non
Pas d’introduction en bourse avant septembre 2026
$11,539 Vol.
Oui
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.**
The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET
Volume
$18,180Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.**
The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$18,180Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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