Recent CIS pre-electoral polling released on November 13 shows the PSC (PSOE affiliate) leading Lleida with 22.7% vote intention, ahead of ERC at 17.4%, with Vox, PP, and Junts trailing further behind in the province. This local edge aligns with PSOE's national positioning in the survey and contributes to trader consensus favoring PSOE as the most likely winner in the November 29 general election. ERC maintains a competitive second place in multiple models, reflecting its established Catalan base and recent policy emphasis on rail maintenance amid ongoing service issues. Other parties register minimal probabilities consistent with their lower projected shares and limited seat prospects under D'Hondt allocation for Lleida's four seats. The closely contested PSOE-ERC dynamic explains the market's leading outcomes while underscoring sensitivity to final campaign shifts in turnout and undecided voters.