PP maintains a clear lead in Jaén vote-share estimates at roughly 35 percent compared with PSOE near 30 percent and Vox around 21 percent, producing a projected 2-2-1 seat split under d’Hondt and positioning the PP as the most likely plurality winner. This edge reflects the party’s sustained strength in Andalusia following its 2026 regional gains, combined with candidate lists headed by established local figures and the absence of major late shifts in provincial polling. National volatility between PP and PSOE has not altered Jaén-specific patterns, where the PP’s margin has held steady through early November surveys. The November 29 election date leaves limited room for last-minute national events to reverse the local ordering before votes are cast.