OpenAI's September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra, with standout results on agentic benchmarks such as 72.6% on OSWorld 2.0 and 64.6% on Terminal-Bench Science, has solidified trader consensus around its leading position and 60% implied probability as second-best AI agent lab by end-October. Anthropic's concurrent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which lifted Terminal-Bench 4.0 scores to 55.8 while adding background computer-use capabilities, keep it competitive at 19% amid strong coding and long-horizon task performance. Moonshot's Kimi K3 continues to register high on certain agent leaderboards at 11.5%, though Chinese labs overall trail U.S. frontier models in verified enterprise agent deployments. Further iterations or benchmark updates before October resolution remain key swing factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOpenAI 65%
Anthropic 17%
Moonshot 11%
SpaceXAI 3.7%
$29,973 Vol.
$29,973 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
OpenAI
65%
Anthropic
17%
Moonshot
11%
SpaceXAI
4%
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Amazon
2%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Alibaba
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meta
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 65%
Anthropic 17%
Moonshot 11%
SpaceXAI 3.7%
$29,973 Vol.
$29,973 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
OpenAI
$11,685 Vol.
65%
Anthropic
$2,842 Vol.
17%
Moonshot
$7,064 Vol.
11%
SpaceXAI
$640 Vol.
4%
$1,462 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$553 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$534 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$561 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$458 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$489 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$526 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$483 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$488 Vol.
1%
Meta
$443 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$390 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$493 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$461 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra, with standout results on agentic benchmarks such as 72.6% on OSWorld 2.0 and 64.6% on Terminal-Bench Science, has solidified trader consensus around its leading position and 60% implied probability as second-best AI agent lab by end-October. Anthropic's concurrent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which lifted Terminal-Bench 4.0 scores to 55.8 while adding background computer-use capabilities, keep it competitive at 19% amid strong coding and long-horizon task performance. Moonshot's Kimi K3 continues to register high on certain agent leaderboards at 11.5%, though Chinese labs overall trail U.S. frontier models in verified enterprise agent deployments. Further iterations or benchmark updates before October resolution remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$29,973Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra, with standout results on agentic benchmarks such as 72.6% on OSWorld 2.0 and 64.6% on Terminal-Bench Science, has solidified trader consensus around its leading position and 60% implied probability as second-best AI agent lab by end-October. Anthropic's concurrent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which lifted Terminal-Bench 4.0 scores to 55.8 while adding background computer-use capabilities, keep it competitive at 19% amid strong coding and long-horizon task performance. Moonshot's Kimi K3 continues to register high on certain agent leaderboards at 11.5%, though Chinese labs overall trail U.S. frontier models in verified enterprise agent deployments. Further iterations or benchmark updates before October resolution remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$29,973Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra, with standout results on agentic benchmarks such as 72.6% on OSWorld 2.0 and 64.6% on Terminal-Bench Science, has solidified trader consensus around its leading position and 60% implied probability as second-best AI agent lab by end-October. Anthropic's concurrent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which lifted Terminal-Bench 4.0 scores to 55.8 while adding background computer-use capabilities, keep it competitive at 19% amid strong coding and long-horizon task performance. Moonshot's Kimi K3 continues to register high on certain agent leaderboards at 11.5%, though Chinese labs overall trail U.S. frontier models in verified enterprise agent deployments. Further iterations or benchmark updates before October resolution remain key swing factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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