The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit's April 6, 2026, 2-1 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty affirmed a preliminary injunction blocking New Jersey from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi's sports event contracts, deeming them "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction via field and conflict preemption on designated contract markets. This first appellate decision deepens splits with adverse district rulings in Ohio (Sixth Circuit), Tennessee, and Maryland (Fourth Circuit), fueling expectations for certiorari petitions from states backed by over 34 amicus briefs. Ninth Circuit oral arguments occur April 16 and Fourth Circuit May 7, potentially crystallizing a circuit split that elevates SCOTUS review odds, though the Court's selective ~1% grant rate and procedural timelines temper near-term resolution by July 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSCOTUS accepte le cas de contrat d'événement sportif par... ?
SCOTUS accepte le cas de contrat d'événement sportif par... ?
$935,917 Vol.
31 juil. 2026
31 juillet
14%
31 décembre
43%
$935,917 Vol.
31 juillet
$929,259 Vol.
14%
31 décembre
$6,658 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit's April 6, 2026, 2-1 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty affirmed a preliminary injunction blocking New Jersey from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi's sports event contracts, deeming them "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction via field and conflict preemption on designated contract markets. This first appellate decision deepens splits with adverse district rulings in Ohio (Sixth Circuit), Tennessee, and Maryland (Fourth Circuit), fueling expectations for certiorari petitions from states backed by over 34 amicus briefs. Ninth Circuit oral arguments occur April 16 and Fourth Circuit May 7, potentially crystallizing a circuit split that elevates SCOTUS review odds, though the Court's selective ~1% grant rate and procedural timelines temper near-term resolution by July 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ET
Volume
$935,917Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit's April 6, 2026, 2-1 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty affirmed a preliminary injunction blocking New Jersey from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi's sports event contracts, deeming them "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction via field and conflict preemption on designated contract markets. This first appellate decision deepens splits with adverse district rulings in Ohio (Sixth Circuit), Tennessee, and Maryland (Fourth Circuit), fueling expectations for certiorari petitions from states backed by over 34 amicus briefs. Ninth Circuit oral arguments occur April 16 and Fourth Circuit May 7, potentially crystallizing a circuit split that elevates SCOTUS review odds, though the Court's selective ~1% grant rate and procedural timelines temper near-term resolution by July 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Volume
$935,917Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit's April 6, 2026, 2-1 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty affirmed a preliminary injunction blocking New Jersey from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi's sports event contracts, deeming them "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction via field and conflict preemption on designated contract markets. This first appellate decision deepens splits with adverse district rulings in Ohio (Sixth Circuit), Tennessee, and Maryland (Fourth Circuit), fueling expectations for certiorari petitions from states backed by over 34 amicus briefs. Ninth Circuit oral arguments occur April 16 and Fourth Circuit May 7, potentially crystallizing a circuit split that elevates SCOTUS review odds, though the Court's selective ~1% grant rate and procedural timelines temper near-term resolution by July 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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