Recent New Zealand inflation data and RBNZ communications underpin the 91% market-implied probability of an OCR hike at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. Headline inflation peaked near 3.9% in Q2 2026 amid energy-price effects from Middle East developments, while the central bank lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.50% in July—its first increase in three years—and signaled that further tightening would likely be required to return inflation to the 2% midpoint by mid-2027. Stronger expected growth and still-elevated medium-term price pressures reinforce trader consensus that the RBNZ will continue normalizing policy. A softer-than-anticipated CPI print, sharper easing in global commodity prices, or evidence of persistent spare capacity could still tilt the September outcome toward a hold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en septembre ?
Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en septembre ?
Augmentation 91%
Aucun changement 10%
Diminution <1%
$22,641 Vol.
$22,641 Vol.
2 sept. 2026
Augmentation
91%
Aucun changement
10%
Diminution
<1%
Augmentation 91%
Aucun changement 10%
Diminution <1%
$22,641 Vol.
$22,641 Vol.
2 sept. 2026
Augmentation
$7,566 Vol.
91%
Aucun changement
$13,123 Vol.
10%
Diminution
$1,952 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent New Zealand inflation data and RBNZ communications underpin the 91% market-implied probability of an OCR hike at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. Headline inflation peaked near 3.9% in Q2 2026 amid energy-price effects from Middle East developments, while the central bank lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.50% in July—its first increase in three years—and signaled that further tightening would likely be required to return inflation to the 2% midpoint by mid-2027. Stronger expected growth and still-elevated medium-term price pressures reinforce trader consensus that the RBNZ will continue normalizing policy. A softer-than-anticipated CPI print, sharper easing in global commodity prices, or evidence of persistent spare capacity could still tilt the September outcome toward a hold.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Volume
$22,641Date de fin
2 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent New Zealand inflation data and RBNZ communications underpin the 91% market-implied probability of an OCR hike at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. Headline inflation peaked near 3.9% in Q2 2026 amid energy-price effects from Middle East developments, while the central bank lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.50% in July—its first increase in three years—and signaled that further tightening would likely be required to return inflation to the 2% midpoint by mid-2027. Stronger expected growth and still-elevated medium-term price pressures reinforce trader consensus that the RBNZ will continue normalizing policy. A softer-than-anticipated CPI print, sharper easing in global commodity prices, or evidence of persistent spare capacity could still tilt the September outcome toward a hold.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$22,641Date de fin
2 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent New Zealand inflation data and RBNZ communications underpin the 91% market-implied probability of an OCR hike at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. Headline inflation peaked near 3.9% in Q2 2026 amid energy-price effects from Middle East developments, while the central bank lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.50% in July—its first increase in three years—and signaled that further tightening would likely be required to return inflation to the 2% midpoint by mid-2027. Stronger expected growth and still-elevated medium-term price pressures reinforce trader consensus that the RBNZ will continue normalizing policy. A softer-than-anticipated CPI print, sharper easing in global commodity prices, or evidence of persistent spare capacity could still tilt the September outcome toward a hold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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