Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.5% and trimmed-mean measures holding at 3.6%—both above the RBA’s 2–3% target—have driven the market-implied 58.8% probability of a 25 basis point cash rate increase at the September 29 meeting, versus 41.5% for no change. Persistent underlying price pressures from domestic capacity constraints and prior Middle East-related cost pass-through have reinforced the RBA’s repeated signals that it will tighten if upside risks materialize, shifting economist forecasts including NAB toward a September hike. Resilient Q2 GDP and firm discretionary spending have further supported expectations of policy tightening, while the current 4.35% cash rate and pre-meeting data releases remain key swing factors priced into futures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour25 bps increase 58.8%
No change 41.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$54,840 Vol.
$54,840 Vol.
28 sept. 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
41%
25 bps increase
59%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase 58.8%
No change 41.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$54,840 Vol.
$54,840 Vol.
28 sept. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,435 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$4,751 Vol.
<1%
No change
$26,207 Vol.
41%
25 bps increase
$21,341 Vol.
59%
50+ bps increase
$1,106 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.5% and trimmed-mean measures holding at 3.6%—both above the RBA’s 2–3% target—have driven the market-implied 58.8% probability of a 25 basis point cash rate increase at the September 29 meeting, versus 41.5% for no change. Persistent underlying price pressures from domestic capacity constraints and prior Middle East-related cost pass-through have reinforced the RBA’s repeated signals that it will tighten if upside risks materialize, shifting economist forecasts including NAB toward a September hike. Resilient Q2 GDP and firm discretionary spending have further supported expectations of policy tightening, while the current 4.35% cash rate and pre-meeting data releases remain key swing factors priced into futures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$54,840Date de fin
29 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.5% and trimmed-mean measures holding at 3.6%—both above the RBA’s 2–3% target—have driven the market-implied 58.8% probability of a 25 basis point cash rate increase at the September 29 meeting, versus 41.5% for no change. Persistent underlying price pressures from domestic capacity constraints and prior Middle East-related cost pass-through have reinforced the RBA’s repeated signals that it will tighten if upside risks materialize, shifting economist forecasts including NAB toward a September hike. Resilient Q2 GDP and firm discretionary spending have further supported expectations of policy tightening, while the current 4.35% cash rate and pre-meeting data releases remain key swing factors priced into futures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$54,840Date de fin
29 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.5% and trimmed-mean measures holding at 3.6%—both above the RBA’s 2–3% target—have driven the market-implied 58.8% probability of a 25 basis point cash rate increase at the September 29 meeting, versus 41.5% for no change. Persistent underlying price pressures from domestic capacity constraints and prior Middle East-related cost pass-through have reinforced the RBA’s repeated signals that it will tighten if upside risks materialize, shifting economist forecasts including NAB toward a September hike. Resilient Q2 GDP and firm discretionary spending have further supported expectations of policy tightening, while the current 4.35% cash rate and pre-meeting data releases remain key swing factors priced into futures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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