Trader consensus heavily favors under 150 mm of total August precipitation in Seoul, reflecting observed rainfall patterns well below the long-term climatological average of roughly 350 mm. Official monitoring from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows predominantly light accumulations, with Seoul receiving only 20–60 mm from late-month stationary front activity that delivered far heavier totals farther south. This aligns with the broader 2026 summer monsoon distribution, where moisture corridors and low-pressure remnants favored Chungcheong and Honam regions over the capital area. The market-implied probability near 95% for the lowest bracket underscores consistent model runs and station data through month-end. Only substantial upward revisions in finalized KMA figures or overlooked localized convective events could realistically shift resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPrécipitations à Séoul en août ?
Précipitations à Séoul en août ?
<150 mm 100.0%
300-350 mm 1.2%
150-200 mm <1%
250-300 mm <1%
$6,324 Vol.
$6,324 Vol.
31 août 2026
<150 mm
Oui
150-200 mm
Non
200-250 mm
Non
250-300 mm
Non
300-350 mm
Non
350-400 mm
Non
400-500 mm
Non
500 mm+
Non
<150 mm 100.0%
300-350 mm 1.2%
150-200 mm <1%
250-300 mm <1%
$6,324 Vol.
$6,324 Vol.
31 août 2026
<150 mm
$3,086 Vol.
Oui
150-200 mm
$2,212 Vol.
Non
200-250 mm
$85 Vol.
Non
250-300 mm
$142 Vol.
Non
300-350 mm
$159 Vol.
Non
350-400 mm
$196 Vol.
Non
400-500 mm
$113 Vol.
Non
500 mm+
$332 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors under 150 mm of total August precipitation in Seoul, reflecting observed rainfall patterns well below the long-term climatological average of roughly 350 mm. Official monitoring from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows predominantly light accumulations, with Seoul receiving only 20–60 mm from late-month stationary front activity that delivered far heavier totals farther south. This aligns with the broader 2026 summer monsoon distribution, where moisture corridors and low-pressure remnants favored Chungcheong and Honam regions over the capital area. The market-implied probability near 95% for the lowest bracket underscores consistent model runs and station data through month-end. Only substantial upward revisions in finalized KMA figures or overlooked localized convective events could realistically shift resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ET
Volume
$6,324Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors under 150 mm of total August precipitation in Seoul, reflecting observed rainfall patterns well below the long-term climatological average of roughly 350 mm. Official monitoring from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows predominantly light accumulations, with Seoul receiving only 20–60 mm from late-month stationary front activity that delivered far heavier totals farther south. This aligns with the broader 2026 summer monsoon distribution, where moisture corridors and low-pressure remnants favored Chungcheong and Honam regions over the capital area. The market-implied probability near 95% for the lowest bracket underscores consistent model runs and station data through month-end. Only substantial upward revisions in finalized KMA figures or overlooked localized convective events could realistically shift resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,324Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Trader consensus heavily favors under 150 mm of total August precipitation in Seoul, reflecting observed rainfall patterns well below the long-term climatological average of roughly 350 mm. Official monitoring from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows predominantly light accumulations, with Seoul receiving only 20–60 mm from late-month stationary front activity that delivered far heavier totals farther south. This aligns with the broader 2026 summer monsoon distribution, where moisture corridors and low-pressure remnants favored Chungcheong and Honam regions over the capital area. The market-implied probability near 95% for the lowest bracket underscores consistent model runs and station data through month-end. Only substantial upward revisions in finalized KMA figures or overlooked localized convective events could realistically shift resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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