Recent above-average rainfall across Minas Gerais has replenished soil moisture ahead of coffee flowering, with September totals exceeding norms by over 100% in key areas and early October forecasts calling for continued moderate showers through mid-month. This contrasts with trader focus on a strengthening El Niño, projected by models to reach very strong intensity with over 90% probability and peak in October, potentially driving irregular precipitation, elevated temperatures, and evapotranspiration that heighten severe drought risk later in the growing season. Market-implied odds clustered around the 20–39.99% bin reflect this tension between current hydrological surplus and climatological uncertainty from ENSO evolution, with upcoming NOAA and regional model updates likely to shift consensus on peak drought thresholds.