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Politique·Primaires

Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15

icon for Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15
Politique·Primaires

Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15

Ritchie Torres 92%

Michael Blake 6.2%

Dalourny Nemorin 1.7%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$30,298 Vol.

Ritchie Torres 92%

Michael Blake 6.2%

Dalourny Nemorin 1.7%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$30,298 Vol.

Ritchie Torres

$5,255 Vol.

92%

Michael Blake

$3,411 Vol.

6%

Dalourny Nemorin

$14,416 Vol.

2%

Amanda Septimo

$7,216 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres maintains a commanding position in the Democratic primary for New York's 15th Congressional District, reflecting his strong incumbency advantages, established fundraising base, and consistent voter support in the Bronx-centered seat ahead of the June 23 contest. Former Assemblymember Michael Blake launched his challenge in late 2025, centering differences on foreign policy and domestic priorities, yet this has produced limited movement in trader consensus. Candidates Dalourny Nemorin and Amanda Septimo register even lower visibility. Current pricing captures the historical pattern of high re-nomination rates for sitting members in safe districts, while potential late shifts could stem from turnout fluctuations, endorsements, or targeted campaign events in the final weeks.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$30,298
Date de fin
23 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres maintains a commanding position in the Democratic primary for New York's 15th Congressional District, reflecting his strong incumbency advantages, established fundraising base, and consistent voter support in the Bronx-centered seat ahead of the June 23 contest. Former Assemblymember Michael Blake launched his challenge in late 2025, centering differences on foreign policy and domestic priorities, yet this has produced limited movement in trader consensus. Candidates Dalourny Nemorin and Amanda Septimo register even lower visibility. Current pricing captures the historical pattern of high re-nomination rates for sitting members in safe districts, while potential late shifts could stem from turnout fluctuations, endorsements, or targeted campaign events in the final weeks.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$30,298
Date de fin
23 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Ritchie Torres » à 92%, suivi de « Michael Blake » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 92¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 92% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 » a généré $30.3K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 25, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 » est « Ritchie Torres » à 92%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 92% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Michael Blake » à 6%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.