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Politique·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politique·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Petro - Colombia President 58%

Starmer - UK PM 26%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.5%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 2.8%

Polymarket

$692,292 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President 58%

Starmer - UK PM 26%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.5%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 2.8%

Polymarket

$692,292 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President

$82,816 Vol.

58%

Starmer - UK PM

$41,396 Vol.

26%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$25,823 Vol.

9%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$29,940 Vol.

3%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$21,208 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$18,646 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$43,970 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$22,690 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$33,211 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$23,605 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$23,728 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$31,536 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$23,789 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$27,092 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$22,879 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$23,293 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$29,197 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$17,378 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$32,410 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$30,274 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$21,765 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$25,069 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$19,809 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - France PM

$20,941 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads trader consensus at 58% because Colombia’s constitution bars his reelection and the presidential term concludes with the June 2026 runoff and subsequent inauguration. Recent first-round results and the scheduled transition create a firm timeline for his departure before 2027. Keir Starmer follows at 26% amid sustained internal Labour pressure after heavy May 2026 local-election losses, with MPs calling for an exit timetable and approval ratings near historic lows, though no formal challenge has yet forced an earlier handover. Lower-probability outcomes such as Díaz-Canel, Netanyahu, and others reflect the absence of comparable near-term electoral or institutional triggers before 2027, leaving their tenures more stable under current conditions.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$692,292
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads trader consensus at 58% because Colombia’s constitution bars his reelection and the presidential term concludes with the June 2026 runoff and subsequent inauguration. Recent first-round results and the scheduled transition create a firm timeline for his departure before 2027. Keir Starmer follows at 26% amid sustained internal Labour pressure after heavy May 2026 local-election losses, with MPs calling for an exit timetable and approval ratings near historic lows, though no formal challenge has yet forced an earlier handover. Lower-probability outcomes such as Díaz-Canel, Netanyahu, and others reflect the absence of comparable near-term electoral or institutional triggers before 2027, leaving their tenures more stable under current conditions.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$692,292
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 24 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Petro - Colombia President » à 58%, suivi de « Starmer - UK PM » à 26%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 58¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 58% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) » a généré $692.3K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 27, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) », parcourez les 24 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) » est « Petro - Colombia President » à 58%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 58% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Starmer - UK PM » à 26%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.