Polymarket traders show razor-thin divergence on Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with 51.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 46.7% for above $36,000, reflecting split sentiment on tech valuations amid persistent high interest rates. The index's recent 8% rebound from April lows near 24,100 to 26,200—fueled by AI capex optimism and solid Q1 earnings beats from Magnificent Seven names—clashes with no Federal Reserve rate cuts priced for 2026, sticky inflation (March CPI at 2.7%), and rotation into value sectors signaling correction risks. Key swing factors include May FOMC dot plot revisions, April nonfarm payrolls, and Q2 revenue trends; a break below 24,300 support could accelerate bearish bets, while sustained 26,000 resistance breach favors bulls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour23 500 $ - 25 000 $ 80%
25 000 $ - 26 500 $ 41%
26 500 $ - 28 500 $ 41%
30 500 $ - 33 000 $ 41%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
<23 500 $
50%
23 500 $ - 25 000 $
80%
25 000 $ - 26 500 $
41%
26 500 $ - 28 500 $
41%
28 500 $-30 500 $
-
30 500 $ - 33 000 $
41%
33 000 $ - 36 000 $
41%
>36 000 $
43%
23 500 $ - 25 000 $ 80%
25 000 $ - 26 500 $ 41%
26 500 $ - 28 500 $ 41%
30 500 $ - 33 000 $ 41%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
<23 500 $
$0 Vol.
50%
23 500 $ - 25 000 $
$0 Vol.
80%
25 000 $ - 26 500 $
$0 Vol.
41%
26 500 $ - 28 500 $
$0 Vol.
41%
28 500 $-30 500 $
$0 Vol.
-
30 500 $ - 33 000 $
$0 Vol.
41%
33 000 $ - 36 000 $
$0 Vol.
41%
>36 000 $
$42 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders show razor-thin divergence on Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with 51.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 46.7% for above $36,000, reflecting split sentiment on tech valuations amid persistent high interest rates. The index's recent 8% rebound from April lows near 24,100 to 26,200—fueled by AI capex optimism and solid Q1 earnings beats from Magnificent Seven names—clashes with no Federal Reserve rate cuts priced for 2026, sticky inflation (March CPI at 2.7%), and rotation into value sectors signaling correction risks. Key swing factors include May FOMC dot plot revisions, April nonfarm payrolls, and Q2 revenue trends; a break below 24,300 support could accelerate bearish bets, while sustained 26,000 resistance breach favors bulls.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Volume
$42Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETSource de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders show razor-thin divergence on Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with 51.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 46.7% for above $36,000, reflecting split sentiment on tech valuations amid persistent high interest rates. The index's recent 8% rebound from April lows near 24,100 to 26,200—fueled by AI capex optimism and solid Q1 earnings beats from Magnificent Seven names—clashes with no Federal Reserve rate cuts priced for 2026, sticky inflation (March CPI at 2.7%), and rotation into value sectors signaling correction risks. Key swing factors include May FOMC dot plot revisions, April nonfarm payrolls, and Q2 revenue trends; a break below 24,300 support could accelerate bearish bets, while sustained 26,000 resistance breach favors bulls.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$42Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETSource de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show razor-thin divergence on Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with 51.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 46.7% for above $36,000, reflecting split sentiment on tech valuations amid persistent high interest rates. The index's recent 8% rebound from April lows near 24,100 to 26,200—fueled by AI capex optimism and solid Q1 earnings beats from Magnificent Seven names—clashes with no Federal Reserve rate cuts priced for 2026, sticky inflation (March CPI at 2.7%), and rotation into value sectors signaling correction risks. Key swing factors include May FOMC dot plot revisions, April nonfarm payrolls, and Q2 revenue trends; a break below 24,300 support could accelerate bearish bets, while sustained 26,000 resistance breach favors bulls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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