Freshman guard Keaton Wagler of Illinois tops trader consensus at 19% implied probability for NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player after earning South Region MVP honors with 25 points in the Illini's 71-59 Elite Eight upset over Iowa, securing their first Final Four since 2005. His tournament surge—12 rebounds versus Houston in the Sweet 16, plus Big Ten Freshman of the Year pedigree—has elevated the overlooked recruit into top NBA draft prospect conversations, differentiating him amid a youth-driven March Madness field. Duke's Cameron Boozer (2%) lingers as a distant second with 22-plus points and double-digit rebounds per game, but faces a pivotal Elite Eight clash against UConn; trailing freshmen like Braden Smith and Caleb Wilson see diminished paths after earlier exits.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourKeaton Wagler 16.3%
Cameron Boozer 1.6%
Braden Smith <1%
Jeremy Fears Jr <1%
$140,639 Vol.
$140,639 Vol.
Keaton Wagler
16%
Cameron Boozer
2%
Braden Smith
1%
Jeremy Fears Jr
1%
Caleb Wilson
1%
JT Toppin
1%
Kingston Flemings
1%
Darius Acuff Jr
1%
Joshua Jefferson
1%
AJ Dybantsa
<1%
Keaton Wagler 16.3%
Cameron Boozer 1.6%
Braden Smith <1%
Jeremy Fears Jr <1%
$140,639 Vol.
$140,639 Vol.
Keaton Wagler
16%
Cameron Boozer
2%
Braden Smith
1%
Jeremy Fears Jr
1%
Caleb Wilson
1%
JT Toppin
1%
Kingston Flemings
1%
Darius Acuff Jr
1%
Joshua Jefferson
1%
AJ Dybantsa
<1%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NCAA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NCAA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Freshman guard Keaton Wagler of Illinois tops trader consensus at 19% implied probability for NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player after earning South Region MVP honors with 25 points in the Illini's 71-59 Elite Eight upset over Iowa, securing their first Final Four since 2005. His tournament surge—12 rebounds versus Houston in the Sweet 16, plus Big Ten Freshman of the Year pedigree—has elevated the overlooked recruit into top NBA draft prospect conversations, differentiating him amid a youth-driven March Madness field. Duke's Cameron Boozer (2%) lingers as a distant second with 22-plus points and double-digit rebounds per game, but faces a pivotal Elite Eight clash against UConn; trailing freshmen like Braden Smith and Caleb Wilson see diminished paths after earlier exits.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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