**Nawaf Salam has served as Lebanon’s prime minister since forming his 24-member cabinet in February 2025, following his parliamentary designation in January.** This transitional government operates under President Joseph Aoun and is structured to continue until parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2026 produce a successor administration. As of mid-2026, Salam remains the incumbent, actively managing diplomacy on Israel-related ceasefires, southern Lebanon withdrawals, state monopoly on arms, and bilateral talks with Syria, with no reported resignation, no-confidence vote, or parliamentary move against him. Trader consensus at 66% for “No” reflects the absence of destabilizing events that would force an early exit before year-end, consistent with the post-2024/2025 political reset that sidelined prior caretaker arrangements and aligned the cabinet’s mandate with the 2026 electoral cycle. Late-year developments such as election results or coalition shifts could still alter the timeline, but current continuity supports expectations he will serve through the period.