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Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?

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Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$130,047 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$130,047 Vol.

As of market creation, Microsoft is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Microsoft's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Microsoft releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS. Microsoft's Q3 FY2026 earnings release on April 29, 2026, drove trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for a beat, with reported GAAP diluted EPS of $4.27 decisively topping the $4.05 Street consensus from SeekingAlpha by over 5%, and revenue of $82.9 billion exceeding estimates around $81.4 billion. This reflects robust Intelligent Cloud segment growth, including 40% year-over-year expansion in Azure and other cloud services, fueled by AI demand that propelled the AI business to a $37 billion annual run rate, up 123%. Microsoft Cloud revenue hit $54.5 billion, up 29%, underscoring sustained enterprise adoption. Tail risks remain minimal but could involve resolution disputes over GAAP sourcing or fat-finger errors in filings, though official results affirm the outperformance; the post-release conference call offers potential FY2026 guidance updates.

As of market creation, Microsoft is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Microsoft's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Microsoft releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$130,047
Date de fin
29 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 17, 2026, 3:43 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, Microsoft is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Microsoft's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Microsoft releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Résultat proposé: Yes

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Yes

As of market creation, Microsoft is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Microsoft's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Microsoft releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS. Microsoft's Q3 FY2026 earnings release on April 29, 2026, drove trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for a beat, with reported GAAP diluted EPS of $4.27 decisively topping the $4.05 Street consensus from SeekingAlpha by over 5%, and revenue of $82.9 billion exceeding estimates around $81.4 billion. This reflects robust Intelligent Cloud segment growth, including 40% year-over-year expansion in Azure and other cloud services, fueled by AI demand that propelled the AI business to a $37 billion annual run rate, up 123%. Microsoft Cloud revenue hit $54.5 billion, up 29%, underscoring sustained enterprise adoption. Tail risks remain minimal but could involve resolution disputes over GAAP sourcing or fat-finger errors in filings, though official results affirm the outperformance; the post-release conference call offers potential FY2026 guidance updates.

As of market creation, Microsoft is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Microsoft's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Microsoft releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$130,047
Date de fin
29 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 17, 2026, 3:43 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, Microsoft is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Microsoft's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Microsoft releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Résultat proposé: Yes

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Yes

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 100% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 100¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? » a généré $130K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 17, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? » est de 100% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 100% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.