The open seat in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Angie Craig's (D) April 2025 Senate bid, has elevated Republican chances in this D+3 partisan lean district, yet trader consensus implies a 58% Democratic win probability reflecting the party's organizational strength. State Sen. Matt Little leads the crowded Democratic primary at 56% on prediction markets, bolstered by DFL backing, endorsements from EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood, SEIU, and AFSCME, plus a mid-July Star Tribune/MPR poll showing him at 32% ahead of Matt Klein (25%). A February Emerson poll indicated statewide Democratic leads amid voter priorities on democracy threats, sustaining the edge ahead of August 11 primaries. Cook rates it Likely Democratic.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMN-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MN-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Parti républicain
41%
Parti démocrate
58%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
41%
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
58%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Angie Craig's (D) April 2025 Senate bid, has elevated Republican chances in this D+3 partisan lean district, yet trader consensus implies a 58% Democratic win probability reflecting the party's organizational strength. State Sen. Matt Little leads the crowded Democratic primary at 56% on prediction markets, bolstered by DFL backing, endorsements from EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood, SEIU, and AFSCME, plus a mid-July Star Tribune/MPR poll showing him at 32% ahead of Matt Klein (25%). A February Emerson poll indicated statewide Democratic leads amid voter priorities on democracy threats, sustaining the edge ahead of August 11 primaries. Cook rates it Likely Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Angie Craig's (D) April 2025 Senate bid, has elevated Republican chances in this D+3 partisan lean district, yet trader consensus implies a 58% Democratic win probability reflecting the party's organizational strength. State Sen. Matt Little leads the crowded Democratic primary at 56% on prediction markets, bolstered by DFL backing, endorsements from EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood, SEIU, and AFSCME, plus a mid-July Star Tribune/MPR poll showing him at 32% ahead of Matt Klein (25%). A February Emerson poll indicated statewide Democratic leads amid voter priorities on democracy threats, sustaining the edge ahead of August 11 primaries. Cook rates it Likely Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Angie Craig's (D) April 2025 Senate bid, has elevated Republican chances in this D+3 partisan lean district, yet trader consensus implies a 58% Democratic win probability reflecting the party's organizational strength. State Sen. Matt Little leads the crowded Democratic primary at 56% on prediction markets, bolstered by DFL backing, endorsements from EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood, SEIU, and AFSCME, plus a mid-July Star Tribune/MPR poll showing him at 32% ahead of Matt Klein (25%). A February Emerson poll indicated statewide Democratic leads amid voter priorities on democracy threats, sustaining the edge ahead of August 11 primaries. Cook rates it Likely Democratic.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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