Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison holds a clear edge in trader pricing for the November 3, 2026, Minnesota election, reflecting recent polling that shows him ahead of Republican challenger Ron Schutz by roughly eight points among likely voters. Key drivers include Ellison’s emphasis on consumer protection, affordability measures, and multiple lawsuits against the current federal administration, alongside historical precedent that no Republican has won the office since 1966. Schutz has centered his campaign on aggressive prosecution of fraud in state programs and his trial-lawyer background, though outside spending and debates have not yet shifted the race decisively. Undecided voters and regional divides between the Twin Cities metro and greater Minnesota remain the main variables that could still alter the outcome in the final weeks.