Incumbent Republican Jack Bergman secured his party’s nomination in the August 2026 primary with roughly 74 percent of the vote against two challengers, setting up a rematch against Democrat Callie Barr, who won her primary with about 58 percent. The sprawling northern Michigan and Upper Peninsula district has consistently favored Republicans, as shown by Bergman’s 21-point margin in 2024 and current nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Forecasters note the district’s partisan composition and Bergman’s established record on veterans’ issues, armed services, and budget matters as key supports for his position. Barr’s campaign emphasizes affordability, rural hospital funding, and Medicaid access, while the DCCC has listed the district among expanded targets. A major national shift, unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical results and structural factors limit those prospects before the November 3 general election.