Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 1.5–2.5% range amid a post-Q2 rebound that lifted quarter-over-quarter expansion to 1.4% after a 0.6% contraction. Traders price in moderation from subdued private investment, softer domestic demand, and external headwinds including elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and lingering USMCA uncertainty. Recent data show August inflation rising to 3.26% year-over-year, prompting Banxico to hold the policy rate at 6.5% and reinforcing a cautious monetary stance. Government and private forecasts have been trimmed to 1–2% for the full year, with Q3 momentum now hinging on industrial output, retail sales, and export resilience ahead of the October 30 release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 30%
2.5-3.0% 21%
3.0-3.5% 2.4%
$25,539 Vol.
$25,539 Vol.
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
2%
1.5-2.0%
33%
2.0-2.5%
30%
2.5-3.0%
21%
3.0-3.5%
2%
3.5%+
1%
1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 30%
2.5-3.0% 21%
3.0-3.5% 2.4%
$25,539 Vol.
$25,539 Vol.
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
2%
1.5-2.0%
33%
2.0-2.5%
30%
2.5-3.0%
21%
3.0-3.5%
2%
3.5%+
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 1.5–2.5% range amid a post-Q2 rebound that lifted quarter-over-quarter expansion to 1.4% after a 0.6% contraction. Traders price in moderation from subdued private investment, softer domestic demand, and external headwinds including elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and lingering USMCA uncertainty. Recent data show August inflation rising to 3.26% year-over-year, prompting Banxico to hold the policy rate at 6.5% and reinforcing a cautious monetary stance. Government and private forecasts have been trimmed to 1–2% for the full year, with Q3 momentum now hinging on industrial output, retail sales, and export resilience ahead of the October 30 release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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