Recent weakness in Mexico's first-quarter GDP, which contracted 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, has anchored trader sentiment around subdued Q2 2026 growth, with market-implied odds clustered near even between contractionary buckets and the 1.0-1.5% range. Banxico's May downgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.6%, citing the soft start and gradual inflation path, reinforces caution, while high-frequency indicators such as softer consumer confidence and mixed auto production underscore limited momentum. Offsetting factors include resilient U.S. demand supporting exports, ongoing Banxico easing toward a 6.5% policy rate, and expectations of modest consumption recovery, leaving the outcome highly sensitive to June data releases and any shifts in external trade conditions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.5%+ 43%
2.0-2.5% 34.7%
1.5-2.0% 30%
0.5-1.0% 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
< -0,5 %
-
-0,5 à 0,0 %
39%
0.0-0.5%
23%
0.5-1.0%
26%
1.0-1.5%
42%
1.5-2.0%
30%
2.0-2.5%
35%
2.5%+
43%
2.5%+ 43%
2.0-2.5% 34.7%
1.5-2.0% 30%
0.5-1.0% 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
< -0,5 %
$34 Vol.
-
-0,5 à 0,0 %
$54 Vol.
39%
0.0-0.5%
$223 Vol.
23%
0.5-1.0%
$70 Vol.
26%
1.0-1.5%
$32 Vol.
42%
1.5-2.0%
$30 Vol.
30%
2.0-2.5%
$51 Vol.
35%
2.5%+
$30 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico's first-quarter GDP, which contracted 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, has anchored trader sentiment around subdued Q2 2026 growth, with market-implied odds clustered near even between contractionary buckets and the 1.0-1.5% range. Banxico's May downgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.6%, citing the soft start and gradual inflation path, reinforces caution, while high-frequency indicators such as softer consumer confidence and mixed auto production underscore limited momentum. Offsetting factors include resilient U.S. demand supporting exports, ongoing Banxico easing toward a 6.5% policy rate, and expectations of modest consumption recovery, leaving the outcome highly sensitive to June data releases and any shifts in external trade conditions.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$525Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico's first-quarter GDP, which contracted 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, has anchored trader sentiment around subdued Q2 2026 growth, with market-implied odds clustered near even between contractionary buckets and the 1.0-1.5% range. Banxico's May downgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.6%, citing the soft start and gradual inflation path, reinforces caution, while high-frequency indicators such as softer consumer confidence and mixed auto production underscore limited momentum. Offsetting factors include resilient U.S. demand supporting exports, ongoing Banxico easing toward a 6.5% policy rate, and expectations of modest consumption recovery, leaving the outcome highly sensitive to June data releases and any shifts in external trade conditions.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$525Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weakness in Mexico's first-quarter GDP, which contracted 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, has anchored trader sentiment around subdued Q2 2026 growth, with market-implied odds clustered near even between contractionary buckets and the 1.0-1.5% range. Banxico's May downgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.6%, citing the soft start and gradual inflation path, reinforces caution, while high-frequency indicators such as softer consumer confidence and mixed auto production underscore limited momentum. Offsetting factors include resilient U.S. demand supporting exports, ongoing Banxico easing toward a 6.5% policy rate, and expectations of modest consumption recovery, leaving the outcome highly sensitive to June data releases and any shifts in external trade conditions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes