Lai Ching-te’s potential US transit or visit hinges on the second Trump administration’s calibration of Taiwan support against priorities like trade negotiations and a possible Xi summit. The president completed transits through Hawaii and Guam in late 2024 but had a planned 2025 Latin America trip canceled after Washington declined a New York stopover, citing risks to Beijing ties. Taiwan officials have since expressed confidence in future approvals based on ongoing communications, while noting procedural sensitivities around continental stops. Recent arms sales approvals and envoy statements affirm steady bilateral defense and economic ties, yet high-profile visits remain constrained by Beijing’s objections and US diplomatic timing. Scheduled Pacific or Latin American routes could prompt new transit requests before year-end, with outcomes shaped by any shifts in US-China trade talks or regional developments.