**The near-certain 99.7% market-implied probability for “No” stems primarily from the official cancellation of Ye’s planned October 10–11 St. Petersburg concerts at Gazprom Arena.** Russian authorities and politicians, including Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, publicly rejected the shows over the rapper’s past antisemitic remarks and glorification of Hitler, which violate Russian law. Promoters Say Agency confirmed the dates would not proceed after weeks of venue disputes and political pressure, with refunds scheduled to begin October 12. No verified reports place Ye in Russia or indicate any upcoming travel there. With the October 31 deadline approaching and his current focus on the delayed *Bully* album and U.S. dates, the risk of an impromptu visit remains negligible. A realistic upset would require an unforeseen, last-minute decision by Ye to enter the country despite the documented opposition—something historical precedent and current circumstances make highly improbable.