Recent polling averages place Shas at roughly 7–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with individual surveys ranging from 7 to 10. This positioning reflects stable Haredi voter support alongside competition from other religious lists and the impact of a surplus-vote agreement with United Torah Judaism. Shas leader Aryeh Deri has conditioned participation in any coalition on legislation securing broad military exemptions for yeshiva students, a demand that aligns the party with the Netanyahu-aligned bloc but introduces uncertainty if bloc totals remain below 61 seats. Late shifts in turnout among ultra-Orthodox communities or adjustments in surplus calculations could move the final tally between the 6–7 and 8–9 seat ranges that currently dominate trader pricing.