Recent polls place the Reservists–New Economic Party near or below the electoral threshold, with results clustering between 2.2% and 2.8% in surveys from late September and early October. The joint list, formed in early September after Yoaz Hendel’s prior alliance dissolved, combines reservist-focused priorities on universal conscription and post-October 7 accountability with Yaron Zelekha’s emphasis on reducing monopolies and living costs. Support among reservists remains fragmented across larger centrist and right-wing lists such as Yashar, limiting consolidation. High rates of voter switching after final list publication and the absence of a decisive late surge have kept the implied probability of sub-2.75% performance above 50% in current trader pricing. The election occurs on 27 October.