Recent polling averages across multiple Israeli outlets place Ra'am at roughly five seats, with individual surveys from early to mid-October 2026 showing consistent results of five or six mandates. This positioning stems from the party's independent candidacy after merger talks with other Arab lists stalled, its established support among Arab voters, and its pragmatic track record of coalition participation. The market's leading probabilities for five seats, followed by six and four, align closely with these aggregates and the 3.25% electoral threshold dynamics. Broader fragmentation in the Zionist parties and uncertainty over Arab turnout continue to shape the range, with no major late shifts reported in the past week.