Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition le... ?
L'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition le... ?
$1,149,470 Vol.
26 juin 2026
26 juin
Non
27 juin
Oui
28 juin
Non
29 juin
Non
30 juin
Non
1er juillet
Non
2 juillet
Non
3 juillet
Non
4 juillet
Non
5 juillet
Non
6 juillet
Non
7 juillet
Oui
8 juillet
Non
9 juillet
Non
July 10
No
July 11
No
July 12
Yes
July 13
No
July 14
Yes
July 15
No
July 16
No
July 17
No
19 juillet
Non
20 juillet
Oui
21 juillet
Non
22 juillet
Non
23 juillet
Non
24 juillet
Non
25 juillet
Non
26 juillet
Non
27 juillet
Non
28 juillet
Non
29 juillet
Non
30 juillet
Non
31 juillet
Non
$1,149,470 Vol.
26 juin
$53,305 Vol.
Non
27 juin
$76,209 Vol.
Oui
28 juin
$41,622 Vol.
Non
29 juin
$70,230 Vol.
Non
30 juin
$63,002 Vol.
Non
1er juillet
$37,538 Vol.
Non
2 juillet
$32,646 Vol.
Non
3 juillet
$45,220 Vol.
Non
4 juillet
$137,937 Vol.
Non
5 juillet
$42,058 Vol.
Non
6 juillet
$76,320 Vol.
Non
7 juillet
$71,766 Vol.
Oui
8 juillet
$71,683 Vol.
Non
9 juillet
$37,515 Vol.
Non
July 10
$13,861 Vol.
No
July 11
$31,605 Vol.
No
July 12
$41,177 Vol.
Yes
July 13
$52,730 Vol.
No
July 14
$23,388 Vol.
Yes
July 15
$6,745 Vol.
No
July 16
$16,743 Vol.
No
July 17
$27,103 Vol.
No
19 juillet
$14,349 Vol.
Non
20 juillet
$11,826 Vol.
Oui
21 juillet
$21,471 Vol.
Non
22 juillet
$787 Vol.
Non
23 juillet
$14,082 Vol.
Non
24 juillet
$1,495 Vol.
Non
25 juillet
$1,089 Vol.
Non
26 juillet
$225 Vol.
Non
27 juillet
$20 Vol.
Non
28 juillet
$937 Vol.
Non
29 juillet
$1,687 Vol.
Non
30 juillet
$770 Vol.
Non
31 juillet
$10,330 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Marché ouvert : Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,149,470Date de fin
9 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$1,149,470Date de fin
9 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes