Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, continue to shape trader assessments. Iranian forces have conducted multiple missile and drone strikes on commercial vessels, including tankers and cargo ships, throughout 2026, with incidents reported as recently as early August targeting vessels linked to various flag states. These actions follow repeated IRGC warnings, declarations of closure, and efforts to control traffic routes amid a U.S. naval blockade and retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites. Low overall transit volumes persist despite temporary reopenings and diplomatic efforts, reflecting sustained risks from Iranian coastal defenses, mines, and asymmetric tactics. Upcoming factors include potential further U.S. enforcement measures, Iranian responses to blockade pressures, and any escalation tied to unresolved demands over maritime access.