The US-Iran ceasefire, initially set for two weeks after Pakistan-brokered talks on April 8, has been extended indefinitely by President Trump pending an Iranian proposal on ending hostilities, nuclear and missile programs, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Recent weeks have featured intermittent violations, including reported Iranian strikes in early May and a tightening US naval blockade of Iranian ports, while separate Lebanon ceasefire terms continue under Israeli self-defense provisions. Iranian officials have rejected core US demands and issued public threats, and both sides have noted the truce's fragility amid ongoing economic pressures and diplomatic stalemate in Islamabad. Upcoming developments, such as any formal Iranian counter-proposal or shifts in regional mediation, could directly influence whether the pause holds through key upcoming dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
$736,832 Vol.
20 mai
98%
21 mai
94%
22 mai
87%
24 mai
76%
27 mai
71%
31 mai
61%
7 juin
58%
15 juin
53%
30 juin
47%
31 juillet
44%
31 décembre
36%
$736,832 Vol.
20 mai
$166,298 Vol.
98%
21 mai
$186,403 Vol.
94%
22 mai
$107,943 Vol.
87%
24 mai
$127,383 Vol.
76%
27 mai
$37,526 Vol.
71%
31 mai
$48,491 Vol.
61%
7 juin
$14,667 Vol.
58%
15 juin
$12,014 Vol.
53%
30 juin
$16,580 Vol.
47%
31 juillet
$7,690 Vol.
44%
31 décembre
$25,214 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, initially set for two weeks after Pakistan-brokered talks on April 8, has been extended indefinitely by President Trump pending an Iranian proposal on ending hostilities, nuclear and missile programs, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Recent weeks have featured intermittent violations, including reported Iranian strikes in early May and a tightening US naval blockade of Iranian ports, while separate Lebanon ceasefire terms continue under Israeli self-defense provisions. Iranian officials have rejected core US demands and issued public threats, and both sides have noted the truce's fragility amid ongoing economic pressures and diplomatic stalemate in Islamabad. Upcoming developments, such as any formal Iranian counter-proposal or shifts in regional mediation, could directly influence whether the pause holds through key upcoming dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$736,832Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, initially set for two weeks after Pakistan-brokered talks on April 8, has been extended indefinitely by President Trump pending an Iranian proposal on ending hostilities, nuclear and missile programs, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Recent weeks have featured intermittent violations, including reported Iranian strikes in early May and a tightening US naval blockade of Iranian ports, while separate Lebanon ceasefire terms continue under Israeli self-defense provisions. Iranian officials have rejected core US demands and issued public threats, and both sides have noted the truce's fragility amid ongoing economic pressures and diplomatic stalemate in Islamabad. Upcoming developments, such as any formal Iranian counter-proposal or shifts in regional mediation, could directly influence whether the pause holds through key upcoming dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$736,832Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Iran ceasefire, initially set for two weeks after Pakistan-brokered talks on April 8, has been extended indefinitely by President Trump pending an Iranian proposal on ending hostilities, nuclear and missile programs, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Recent weeks have featured intermittent violations, including reported Iranian strikes in early May and a tightening US naval blockade of Iranian ports, while separate Lebanon ceasefire terms continue under Israeli self-defense provisions. Iranian officials have rejected core US demands and issued public threats, and both sides have noted the truce's fragility amid ongoing economic pressures and diplomatic stalemate in Islamabad. Upcoming developments, such as any formal Iranian counter-proposal or shifts in regional mediation, could directly influence whether the pause holds through key upcoming dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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