Iran has shown no willingness to formally agree to permanently end uranium enrichment by the September 30 deadline, sustaining trader expectations reflected in the 95% "No" probability. Following the termination of the JCPOA in late 2025 and U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026, enrichment activities remain halted or inaccessible, with Iran's 60% enriched stockpile largely buried and unrecovered. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons and called for discussions on enrichment limits within 60 days, yet talks have produced only a temporary status quo without any binding pledge to cease the program. IAEA inspections face ongoing restrictions and parliamentary suspensions, while satellite evidence indicates limited rebuilding efforts, reinforcing the view that structural barriers and Iran's long-standing position on its nuclear rights make a near-term agreement improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ?
L'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ?
Oui
6% chance
$57,835 Vol.
$57,835 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
6% chance
$57,835 Vol.
$57,835 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran has shown no willingness to formally agree to permanently end uranium enrichment by the September 30 deadline, sustaining trader expectations reflected in the 95% "No" probability. Following the termination of the JCPOA in late 2025 and U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026, enrichment activities remain halted or inaccessible, with Iran's 60% enriched stockpile largely buried and unrecovered. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons and called for discussions on enrichment limits within 60 days, yet talks have produced only a temporary status quo without any binding pledge to cease the program. IAEA inspections face ongoing restrictions and parliamentary suspensions, while satellite evidence indicates limited rebuilding efforts, reinforcing the view that structural barriers and Iran's long-standing position on its nuclear rights make a near-term agreement improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$57,835Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran has shown no willingness to formally agree to permanently end uranium enrichment by the September 30 deadline, sustaining trader expectations reflected in the 95% "No" probability. Following the termination of the JCPOA in late 2025 and U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026, enrichment activities remain halted or inaccessible, with Iran's 60% enriched stockpile largely buried and unrecovered. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons and called for discussions on enrichment limits within 60 days, yet talks have produced only a temporary status quo without any binding pledge to cease the program. IAEA inspections face ongoing restrictions and parliamentary suspensions, while satellite evidence indicates limited rebuilding efforts, reinforcing the view that structural barriers and Iran's long-standing position on its nuclear rights make a near-term agreement improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$57,835Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has shown no willingness to formally agree to permanently end uranium enrichment by the September 30 deadline, sustaining trader expectations reflected in the 95% "No" probability. Following the termination of the JCPOA in late 2025 and U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026, enrichment activities remain halted or inaccessible, with Iran's 60% enriched stockpile largely buried and unrecovered. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons and called for discussions on enrichment limits within 60 days, yet talks have produced only a temporary status quo without any binding pledge to cease the program. IAEA inspections face ongoing restrictions and parliamentary suspensions, while satellite evidence indicates limited rebuilding efforts, reinforcing the view that structural barriers and Iran's long-standing position on its nuclear rights make a near-term agreement improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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