The Storm Prediction Center's preliminary tally of 96 tornadoes for August 2026 anchors trader consensus on the 80-99 bin at 94.5% implied probability. This figure sits near the 1991-2020 climatological average of roughly 81 and reflects verified contributions from discrete outbreaks, including the August 11 derecho across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio plus the August 20 Northeast event. El Niño conditions, which typically shift the jet stream and reduce convective available potential energy over the Plains and Midwest, aligned with near-average rather than suppressed totals. The final National Centers for Environmental Information count, due around September 9, could incorporate minor survey revisions but is unlikely to shift the total outside 80-99 absent widespread reclassifications.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tornades aux États-Unis en août 2026 ?
Combien de tornades aux États-Unis en août 2026 ?
80-99 94.5%
100–119 5.5%
60-79 1.8%
170–199 <1%
$10,612 Vol.
$10,612 Vol.
1 sept. 2026
<40
<1%
40–59
<1%
60-79
2%
80-99
95%
100–119
9%
120–139
<1%
140-169
<1%
170–199
<1%
200+
<1%
80-99 94.5%
100–119 5.5%
60-79 1.8%
170–199 <1%
$10,612 Vol.
$10,612 Vol.
1 sept. 2026
<40
$440 Vol.
<1%
40–59
$671 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$2,198 Vol.
2%
80-99
$4,498 Vol.
95%
100–119
$1,162 Vol.
9%
120–139
$247 Vol.
<1%
140-169
$397 Vol.
<1%
170–199
$440 Vol.
<1%
200+
$558 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.The Storm Prediction Center's preliminary tally of 96 tornadoes for August 2026 anchors trader consensus on the 80-99 bin at 94.5% implied probability. This figure sits near the 1991-2020 climatological average of roughly 81 and reflects verified contributions from discrete outbreaks, including the August 11 derecho across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio plus the August 20 Northeast event. El Niño conditions, which typically shift the jet stream and reduce convective available potential energy over the Plains and Midwest, aligned with near-average rather than suppressed totals. The final National Centers for Environmental Information count, due around September 9, could incorporate minor survey revisions but is unlikely to shift the total outside 80-99 absent widespread reclassifications.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$10,612Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.The Storm Prediction Center's preliminary tally of 96 tornadoes for August 2026 anchors trader consensus on the 80-99 bin at 94.5% implied probability. This figure sits near the 1991-2020 climatological average of roughly 81 and reflects verified contributions from discrete outbreaks, including the August 11 derecho across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio plus the August 20 Northeast event. El Niño conditions, which typically shift the jet stream and reduce convective available potential energy over the Plains and Midwest, aligned with near-average rather than suppressed totals. The final National Centers for Environmental Information count, due around September 9, could incorporate minor survey revisions but is unlikely to shift the total outside 80-99 absent widespread reclassifications.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$10,612Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Storm Prediction Center's preliminary tally of 96 tornadoes for August 2026 anchors trader consensus on the 80-99 bin at 94.5% implied probability. This figure sits near the 1991-2020 climatological average of roughly 81 and reflects verified contributions from discrete outbreaks, including the August 11 derecho across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio plus the August 20 Northeast event. El Niño conditions, which typically shift the jet stream and reduce convective available potential energy over the Plains and Midwest, aligned with near-average rather than suppressed totals. The final National Centers for Environmental Information count, due around September 9, could incorporate minor survey revisions but is unlikely to shift the total outside 80-99 absent widespread reclassifications.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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