Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to a small fraction of pre-crisis levels near 100 vessels daily. Marine traffic data through early June show persistent restrictions, with daily crossings often in the single digits to low teens amid selective permissions, naval oversight, and elevated insurance risks, keeping weekly volumes firmly in the 25-49 range. This market-implied consensus, backed by real capital at 99.1% probability, reflects trader assessment of sustained chokepoint constraints rather than full normalization. A meaningful uptick could occur only with verifiable de-escalation or expanded transit approvals that lift throughput above recent baselines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?
25-49 99.0%
<25 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$88,626 Vol.
$88,626 Vol.
7 juin 2026
<25
No
25-49
Yes
50-74
No
75-99
No
100+
No
25-49 99.0%
<25 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$88,626 Vol.
$88,626 Vol.
7 juin 2026
<25
$28,637 Vol.
No
25-49
$22,371 Vol.
Yes
50-74
$24,225 Vol.
No
75-99
$8,345 Vol.
No
100+
$5,049 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to a small fraction of pre-crisis levels near 100 vessels daily. Marine traffic data through early June show persistent restrictions, with daily crossings often in the single digits to low teens amid selective permissions, naval oversight, and elevated insurance risks, keeping weekly volumes firmly in the 25-49 range. This market-implied consensus, backed by real capital at 99.1% probability, reflects trader assessment of sustained chokepoint constraints rather than full normalization. A meaningful uptick could occur only with verifiable de-escalation or expanded transit approvals that lift throughput above recent baselines.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
Volume
$88,626Date de fin
7 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ETSource de résolution
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to a small fraction of pre-crisis levels near 100 vessels daily. Marine traffic data through early June show persistent restrictions, with daily crossings often in the single digits to low teens amid selective permissions, naval oversight, and elevated insurance risks, keeping weekly volumes firmly in the 25-49 range. This market-implied consensus, backed by real capital at 99.1% probability, reflects trader assessment of sustained chokepoint constraints rather than full normalization. A meaningful uptick could occur only with verifiable de-escalation or expanded transit approvals that lift throughput above recent baselines.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$88,626Date de fin
7 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ETSource de résolution
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to a small fraction of pre-crisis levels near 100 vessels daily. Marine traffic data through early June show persistent restrictions, with daily crossings often in the single digits to low teens amid selective permissions, naval oversight, and elevated insurance risks, keeping weekly volumes firmly in the 25-49 range. This market-implied consensus, backed by real capital at 99.1% probability, reflects trader assessment of sustained chokepoint constraints rather than full normalization. A meaningful uptick could occur only with verifiable de-escalation or expanded transit approvals that lift throughput above recent baselines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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