Ongoing US-Iran blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels, and periodic attacks have kept commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suppressed well below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 85-130 daily transits. For the week of August 17, 2026, AIS and tracker data from Kpler, UKMTO, and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity crossings mostly in single digits amid rerouting, dark transits, and enforcement, yielding a weekly total that aligns precisely with the 25-49 bin. This positioning reflects trader assessment of sustained energy-market frictions, including Brent crude near $88-94 amid constrained throughput of 4-7 million barrels per day, without near-term catalysts for sharp recovery or total shutdown. A breakthrough in stalled peace talks or reduced enforcement could lift volumes above 50, while intensified strikes or full corridor closures remain the primary downside risks to the current range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz la semaine du 17 août ?
Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz la semaine du 17 août ?
25-49 100.0%
<25 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$67,444 Vol.
$67,444 Vol.
23 août 2026
<25
Non
25-49
Oui
50-74
Non
75-99
Non
100+
Non
25-49 100.0%
<25 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$67,444 Vol.
$67,444 Vol.
23 août 2026
<25
$23,616 Vol.
Non
25-49
$19,417 Vol.
Oui
50-74
$13,450 Vol.
Non
75-99
$7,229 Vol.
Non
100+
$3,733 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels, and periodic attacks have kept commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suppressed well below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 85-130 daily transits. For the week of August 17, 2026, AIS and tracker data from Kpler, UKMTO, and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity crossings mostly in single digits amid rerouting, dark transits, and enforcement, yielding a weekly total that aligns precisely with the 25-49 bin. This positioning reflects trader assessment of sustained energy-market frictions, including Brent crude near $88-94 amid constrained throughput of 4-7 million barrels per day, without near-term catalysts for sharp recovery or total shutdown. A breakthrough in stalled peace talks or reduced enforcement could lift volumes above 50, while intensified strikes or full corridor closures remain the primary downside risks to the current range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Volume
$67,444Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels, and periodic attacks have kept commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suppressed well below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 85-130 daily transits. For the week of August 17, 2026, AIS and tracker data from Kpler, UKMTO, and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity crossings mostly in single digits amid rerouting, dark transits, and enforcement, yielding a weekly total that aligns precisely with the 25-49 bin. This positioning reflects trader assessment of sustained energy-market frictions, including Brent crude near $88-94 amid constrained throughput of 4-7 million barrels per day, without near-term catalysts for sharp recovery or total shutdown. A breakthrough in stalled peace talks or reduced enforcement could lift volumes above 50, while intensified strikes or full corridor closures remain the primary downside risks to the current range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$67,444Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Ongoing US-Iran blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels, and periodic attacks have kept commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suppressed well below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 85-130 daily transits. For the week of August 17, 2026, AIS and tracker data from Kpler, UKMTO, and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity crossings mostly in single digits amid rerouting, dark transits, and enforcement, yielding a weekly total that aligns precisely with the 25-49 bin. This positioning reflects trader assessment of sustained energy-market frictions, including Brent crude near $88-94 amid constrained throughput of 4-7 million barrels per day, without near-term catalysts for sharp recovery or total shutdown. A breakthrough in stalled peace talks or reduced enforcement could lift volumes above 50, while intensified strikes or full corridor closures remain the primary downside risks to the current range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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