Skip to main content
icon for Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz cette semaine ? (13-19 avr.)
Géopolitique·Récompenses 50, 4.5, 100

Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz cette semaine ? (13-19 avr.)

icon for Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz cette semaine ? (13-19 avr.)
Géopolitique·Récompenses 50, 4.5, 100

Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz cette semaine ? (13-19 avr.)

Ended: avr. 19

mai 17

mai 24

Ended: avr. 19

mai 17

mai 24

80+ 100.0%

<10 <1%

10-19 <1%

20-29 <1%

Polymarket

$273,534 Vol.

80+ 100.0%

<10 <1%

10-19 <1%

20-29 <1%

Polymarket

$273,534 Vol.

<10

$17,369 Vol.

Non

10-19

$17,228 Vol.

Non

20-29

$10,519 Vol.

Non

30-39

$11,012 Vol.

Non

40-49

$12,352 Vol.

Non

50-59

$9,795 Vol.

Non

60-69

$9,615 Vol.

Non

70-79

$11,668 Vol.

Non

80+

$173,977 Vol.

Oui

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 80+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 13-19, driven by IMF Portwatch data confirming the weekly total surpassed this threshold amid partial traffic recovery. Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since late February 2026—marked by blockades, vessel seizures, attacks on commercial shipping, GPS jamming, and AIS spoofing—had slashed daily transits from pre-conflict averages of 130 vessels to as few as 6-14 earlier in April. However, a brief ceasefire around April 17-19 prompted a surge, with reports of 20+ vessels attempting passage on April 17 and 35 crossing on April 19, elevating the week's tally. Late-breaking revisions to IMF data prior to final publication could theoretically challenge this, though market rules disregard post-final adjustments, cementing the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$273,534
Date de fin
19 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 13, 2026, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 80+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 13-19, driven by IMF Portwatch data confirming the weekly total surpassed this threshold amid partial traffic recovery. Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since late February 2026—marked by blockades, vessel seizures, attacks on commercial shipping, GPS jamming, and AIS spoofing—had slashed daily transits from pre-conflict averages of 130 vessels to as few as 6-14 earlier in April. However, a brief ceasefire around April 17-19 prompted a surge, with reports of 20+ vessels attempting passage on April 17 and 35 crossing on April 19, elevating the week's tally. Late-breaking revisions to IMF data prior to final publication could theoretically challenge this, though market rules disregard post-final adjustments, cementing the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$273,534
Date de fin
19 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 13, 2026, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz cette semaine ? (13-19 avr.) » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 80+ » à 100%, suivi de « <10 » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz cette semaine ? (13-19 avr.) » a généré $273.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 13, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz cette semaine ? (13-19 avr.) », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz cette semaine ? (13-19 avr.) » est « 80+ » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « <10 » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz cette semaine ? (13-19 avr.) » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.