The closely matched probabilities for Republicans winning two or three combined Senate and gubernatorial seats in 2024 Harris-won states reflect the small slate of such contests in 2026, with Republicans defending governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont alongside one Senate seat in a comparable state. Recent primary results and forecaster updates, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts toward Democratic leans in Michigan and other battlegrounds plus Cook Political Report ratings favoring Democratic holds, have reinforced expectations of limited Republican gains amid strong incumbency advantages and partisan leans in those jurisdictions. Trader consensus remains tight due to uncertainty over candidate recruitment, turnout patterns in swing-state subsets, and any national midterm dynamics that could influence margins. Further primary resolutions, late polling shifts, or developments in open races like New Hampshire could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
3 29.9%
2 29%
4 12.6%
1 7.7%
$23,849 Vol.
$23,849 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
0
2%
1
8%
2
29%
3
30%
4
13%
5
4%
6+
2%
3 29.9%
2 29%
4 12.6%
1 7.7%
$23,849 Vol.
$23,849 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
0
$3,477 Vol.
2%
1
$2,623 Vol.
8%
2
$8,237 Vol.
29%
3
$4,294 Vol.
30%
4
$1,861 Vol.
13%
5
$1,956 Vol.
4%
6+
$1,401 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities for Republicans winning two or three combined Senate and gubernatorial seats in 2024 Harris-won states reflect the small slate of such contests in 2026, with Republicans defending governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont alongside one Senate seat in a comparable state. Recent primary results and forecaster updates, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts toward Democratic leans in Michigan and other battlegrounds plus Cook Political Report ratings favoring Democratic holds, have reinforced expectations of limited Republican gains amid strong incumbency advantages and partisan leans in those jurisdictions. Trader consensus remains tight due to uncertainty over candidate recruitment, turnout patterns in swing-state subsets, and any national midterm dynamics that could influence margins. Further primary resolutions, late polling shifts, or developments in open races like New Hampshire could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$23,849Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities for Republicans winning two or three combined Senate and gubernatorial seats in 2024 Harris-won states reflect the small slate of such contests in 2026, with Republicans defending governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont alongside one Senate seat in a comparable state. Recent primary results and forecaster updates, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts toward Democratic leans in Michigan and other battlegrounds plus Cook Political Report ratings favoring Democratic holds, have reinforced expectations of limited Republican gains amid strong incumbency advantages and partisan leans in those jurisdictions. Trader consensus remains tight due to uncertainty over candidate recruitment, turnout patterns in swing-state subsets, and any national midterm dynamics that could influence margins. Further primary resolutions, late polling shifts, or developments in open races like New Hampshire could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,849Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities for Republicans winning two or three combined Senate and gubernatorial seats in 2024 Harris-won states reflect the small slate of such contests in 2026, with Republicans defending governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont alongside one Senate seat in a comparable state. Recent primary results and forecaster updates, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts toward Democratic leans in Michigan and other battlegrounds plus Cook Political Report ratings favoring Democratic holds, have reinforced expectations of limited Republican gains amid strong incumbency advantages and partisan leans in those jurisdictions. Trader consensus remains tight due to uncertainty over candidate recruitment, turnout patterns in swing-state subsets, and any national midterm dynamics that could influence margins. Further primary resolutions, late polling shifts, or developments in open races like New Hampshire could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le Parti républicain détiendra-t-il 47 sièges ou moins au Sénat après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
26%
Oui
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
68%
Le Parti républicain détiendra-t-il moins de 190 sièges à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
24%
Oui
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