Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by June's downwardly revised gain of just 20,000 nonfarm payrolls and persistent weakness in private-sector hiring, has driven trader consensus toward a July decline. Cooling demand in retail, local government education, and manufacturing—coupled with broader economic indicators such as subdued consumer spending and elevated policy uncertainty—supports the market-implied odds of negative job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey data, showing average monthly gains slowing sharply through mid-2026, reinforces this positioning. While benchmark revisions or unexpected seasonal adjustments could theoretically alter the final tally, the scale of recent deceleration makes a positive surprise unlikely absent major data corrections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many jobs added in July?
How many jobs added in July?
<0 100.0%
0 – 50k <1%
50k – 100k <1%
100k – 150k <1%
$38,171 Vol.
$38,171 Vol.
<0
Yes
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
No
150k – 200k
No
200k+
No
<0 100.0%
0 – 50k <1%
50k – 100k <1%
100k – 150k <1%
$38,171 Vol.
$38,171 Vol.
<0
Yes
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
No
150k – 200k
No
200k+
No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by June's downwardly revised gain of just 20,000 nonfarm payrolls and persistent weakness in private-sector hiring, has driven trader consensus toward a July decline. Cooling demand in retail, local government education, and manufacturing—coupled with broader economic indicators such as subdued consumer spending and elevated policy uncertainty—supports the market-implied odds of negative job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey data, showing average monthly gains slowing sharply through mid-2026, reinforces this positioning. While benchmark revisions or unexpected seasonal adjustments could theoretically alter the final tally, the scale of recent deceleration makes a positive surprise unlikely absent major data corrections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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