USGS seismic catalogs, drawing from the global Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), confirm zero earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw) 6.5 or greater worldwide from May 4–10, 2026 UTC, with the largest event in the period a Mw 5.8 off Alaska on May 6—solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for zero. This aligns with real-time monitoring by thousands of stations worldwide, which reliably detect all Mw 6.5+ events capable of significant impact. Historically, such quakes average 2–3 per week globally, yet null weeks occur roughly 5–10% of the time due to Poisson-distributed seismicity along active fault systems. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution: only a rare magnitude revision upward by USGS analysts, typically finalized within days, could shift outcomes, but current data shows no candidates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$28,188 Vol.
$28,188 Vol.
10 mai 2026
0
Yes
1
No
2
No
3
No
4
No
5
No
>5
No
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$28,188 Vol.
$28,188 Vol.
10 mai 2026
0
$12,852 Vol.
Yes
1
$3,620 Vol.
No
2
$4,201 Vol.
No
3
$2,666 Vol.
No
4
$758 Vol.
No
5
$1,186 Vol.
No
>5
$2,905 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic catalogs, drawing from the global Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), confirm zero earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw) 6.5 or greater worldwide from May 4–10, 2026 UTC, with the largest event in the period a Mw 5.8 off Alaska on May 6—solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for zero. This aligns with real-time monitoring by thousands of stations worldwide, which reliably detect all Mw 6.5+ events capable of significant impact. Historically, such quakes average 2–3 per week globally, yet null weeks occur roughly 5–10% of the time due to Poisson-distributed seismicity along active fault systems. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution: only a rare magnitude revision upward by USGS analysts, typically finalized within days, could shift outcomes, but current data shows no candidates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Volume
$28,188Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic catalogs, drawing from the global Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), confirm zero earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw) 6.5 or greater worldwide from May 4–10, 2026 UTC, with the largest event in the period a Mw 5.8 off Alaska on May 6—solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for zero. This aligns with real-time monitoring by thousands of stations worldwide, which reliably detect all Mw 6.5+ events capable of significant impact. Historically, such quakes average 2–3 per week globally, yet null weeks occur roughly 5–10% of the time due to Poisson-distributed seismicity along active fault systems. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution: only a rare magnitude revision upward by USGS analysts, typically finalized within days, could shift outcomes, but current data shows no candidates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$28,188Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
USGS seismic catalogs, drawing from the global Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), confirm zero earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw) 6.5 or greater worldwide from May 4–10, 2026 UTC, with the largest event in the period a Mw 5.8 off Alaska on May 6—solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for zero. This aligns with real-time monitoring by thousands of stations worldwide, which reliably detect all Mw 6.5+ events capable of significant impact. Historically, such quakes average 2–3 per week globally, yet null weeks occur roughly 5–10% of the time due to Poisson-distributed seismicity along active fault systems. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution: only a rare magnitude revision upward by USGS analysts, typically finalized within days, could shift outcomes, but current data shows no candidates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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