Traders assign a 99.5% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurring worldwide between June 8 and June 14 because official USGS monitoring recorded no events meeting that threshold during the interval. Global seismic catalogs showed only lower-magnitude activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major subduction zones or aftershock sequences. This outcome aligns with the absence of significant tectonic triggers or swarm activity in high-risk regions during those seven days. A realistic challenge would require post-event magnitude recalibrations by USGS or discovery of an unreported deep or remote event exceeding the cutoff, though such revisions are uncommon once preliminary data are reviewed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ?
Combien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ?
0 99.5%
1 11.0%
3 1.2%
2 <1%
$27,557 Vol.
$27,557 Vol.
15 juin 2026
0
Oui
1
Non
2
Non
3
Non
4
Non
5
Non
>5
Non
0 99.5%
1 11.0%
3 1.2%
2 <1%
$27,557 Vol.
$27,557 Vol.
15 juin 2026
0
$10,002 Vol.
Oui
1
$2,928 Vol.
Non
2
$2,637 Vol.
Non
3
$3,472 Vol.
Non
4
$3,215 Vol.
Non
5
$1,775 Vol.
Non
>5
$3,528 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 99.5% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurring worldwide between June 8 and June 14 because official USGS monitoring recorded no events meeting that threshold during the interval. Global seismic catalogs showed only lower-magnitude activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major subduction zones or aftershock sequences. This outcome aligns with the absence of significant tectonic triggers or swarm activity in high-risk regions during those seven days. A realistic challenge would require post-event magnitude recalibrations by USGS or discovery of an unreported deep or remote event exceeding the cutoff, though such revisions are uncommon once preliminary data are reviewed.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$27,557Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 99.5% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurring worldwide between June 8 and June 14 because official USGS monitoring recorded no events meeting that threshold during the interval. Global seismic catalogs showed only lower-magnitude activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major subduction zones or aftershock sequences. This outcome aligns with the absence of significant tectonic triggers or swarm activity in high-risk regions during those seven days. A realistic challenge would require post-event magnitude recalibrations by USGS or discovery of an unreported deep or remote event exceeding the cutoff, though such revisions are uncommon once preliminary data are reviewed.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$27,557Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Traders assign a 99.5% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurring worldwide between June 8 and June 14 because official USGS monitoring recorded no events meeting that threshold during the interval. Global seismic catalogs showed only lower-magnitude activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major subduction zones or aftershock sequences. This outcome aligns with the absence of significant tectonic triggers or swarm activity in high-risk regions during those seven days. A realistic challenge would require post-event magnitude recalibrations by USGS or discovery of an unreported deep or remote event exceeding the cutoff, though such revisions are uncommon once preliminary data are reviewed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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