Traders assign near-certainty to exactly two earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during the June 1–7 window because official USGS catalogs record that precise count, consistent with the market’s resolution criteria. Global seismicity averages roughly 0.3–0.4 such events per week, yet short-term clustering around active subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges can produce small deviations; the observed pair aligns with this variability. Real-time magnitude estimates carry minor uncertainty from depth, location, and aftershock classification, but final USGS review has already locked in the tally. Any late revision of a borderline event or discovery of an unreported offshore shock could theoretically alter the outcome, though such adjustments remain statistically rare once the seven-day period closes.