Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from May 4 to May 10, 2026, driven by the finalized U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) global earthquake catalog confirming the tally exceeded this threshold. The USGS Advanced National Seismic System aggregates data from international networks, reviewing initial reports for accuracy, with the past week's count aligning with historical norms of 10–15 such events per week along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire and subduction zones. No unusual seismic swarms or tectonic shifts elevated activity above baseline. Realistic challenges would involve rare post-review magnitude downgrades across multiple events, though USGS data stabilizes quickly after the period ends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
>9 100.0%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
5 <1%
$147,193 Vol.
$147,193 Vol.
10 mai 2026
≤3
No
4
No
5
No
6
No
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
Yes
>9 100.0%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
5 <1%
$147,193 Vol.
$147,193 Vol.
10 mai 2026
≤3
$17,332 Vol.
No
4
$17,000 Vol.
No
5
$22,845 Vol.
No
6
$16,296 Vol.
No
7
$13,681 Vol.
No
8
$10,136 Vol.
No
9
$10,714 Vol.
No
>9
$39,190 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from May 4 to May 10, 2026, driven by the finalized U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) global earthquake catalog confirming the tally exceeded this threshold. The USGS Advanced National Seismic System aggregates data from international networks, reviewing initial reports for accuracy, with the past week's count aligning with historical norms of 10–15 such events per week along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire and subduction zones. No unusual seismic swarms or tectonic shifts elevated activity above baseline. Realistic challenges would involve rare post-review magnitude downgrades across multiple events, though USGS data stabilizes quickly after the period ends.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volume
$147,193Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from May 4 to May 10, 2026, driven by the finalized U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) global earthquake catalog confirming the tally exceeded this threshold. The USGS Advanced National Seismic System aggregates data from international networks, reviewing initial reports for accuracy, with the past week's count aligning with historical norms of 10–15 such events per week along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire and subduction zones. No unusual seismic swarms or tectonic shifts elevated activity above baseline. Realistic challenges would involve rare post-review magnitude downgrades across multiple events, though USGS data stabilizes quickly after the period ends.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$147,193Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from May 4 to May 10, 2026, driven by the finalized U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) global earthquake catalog confirming the tally exceeded this threshold. The USGS Advanced National Seismic System aggregates data from international networks, reviewing initial reports for accuracy, with the past week's count aligning with historical norms of 10–15 such events per week along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire and subduction zones. No unusual seismic swarms or tectonic shifts elevated activity above baseline. Realistic challenges would involve rare post-review magnitude downgrades across multiple events, though USGS data stabilizes quickly after the period ends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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