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icon for Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ?

Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ?

icon for Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ?

Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ?

>9 96.0%

≤3 <1%

4 <1%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$46,115 Vol.

>9 96.0%

≤3 <1%

4 <1%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$46,115 Vol.

≤3

$3,377 Vol.

Non

4

$2,340 Vol.

Non

5

$3,737 Vol.

Non

6

$4,037 Vol.

Non

7

$4,080 Vol.

Non

8

$8,155 Vol.

Non

9

$4,031 Vol.

Non

>9

$16,359 Vol.

Oui

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The June 8, 2026, magnitude 7.8 Mindanao earthquake in the Philippines triggered an extensive aftershock sequence that drove the weekly global count of M5.5+ events well above the nine-event threshold. USGS monitoring shows this mainshock, followed by multiple aftershocks reaching or exceeding 5.5, aligned with typical clustering along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones where roughly 70 percent of such seismicity occurs. Historical baselines from USGS catalogs indicate 10–15 M5.5+ earthquakes per week on average during active periods, with aftershock productivity governed by Omori’s law producing rapid initial decay yet still elevating totals early in the June 8–14 window. Trader consensus at 96 percent for more than nine events reflects confirmed activity through mid-June rather than forecast uncertainty. A markedly quieter sequence with faster magnitude decay or absent additional clusters near Indonesia or the Aleutians could have kept the count closer to or below nine.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$46,115
Date de fin
15 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The June 8, 2026, magnitude 7.8 Mindanao earthquake in the Philippines triggered an extensive aftershock sequence that drove the weekly global count of M5.5+ events well above the nine-event threshold. USGS monitoring shows this mainshock, followed by multiple aftershocks reaching or exceeding 5.5, aligned with typical clustering along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones where roughly 70 percent of such seismicity occurs. Historical baselines from USGS catalogs indicate 10–15 M5.5+ earthquakes per week on average during active periods, with aftershock productivity governed by Omori’s law producing rapid initial decay yet still elevating totals early in the June 8–14 window. Trader consensus at 96 percent for more than nine events reflects confirmed activity through mid-June rather than forecast uncertainty. A markedly quieter sequence with faster magnitude decay or absent additional clusters near Indonesia or the Aleutians could have kept the count closer to or below nine.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$46,115
Date de fin
15 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

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Questions fréquentes

« Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 8 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « >9 » à 100%, suivi de « ≤3 » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ? » a généré $46.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jun 5, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ? », parcourez les 8 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ? » est « >9 » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « ≤3 » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.