Trader consensus assigns 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below because no earthquake exceeding 7.8 has occurred through mid-September, with the year’s largest events limited to a Mw 7.8 offshore Mindanao in June and Mw 7.7 near Flores, Indonesia. Global catalogs show roughly one Mw 8.0+ event annually on average, yet none have materialized despite ongoing subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Remaining time until year-end is short, and current USGS monitoring reveals only moderate aftershock sequences and smaller events (Mw 5–6.5) without precursors signaling rapid rupture of a major locked fault segment. While stochastic variability allows for a late-year great earthquake, the absence of recent Mw 8+ activity and typical inter-event intervals support the market’s strong weighting toward magnitudes staying below 8.0.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ?
La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ?
7,9 ou moins 75%
8,0 – 8,1 12%
8,2–8,3 7.5%
8,6 – 8,7 5.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 janv. 2027
7,9 ou moins
75%
8,0 – 8,1
12%
8,2–8,3
8%
8,4 – 8,5
2%
8,6 – 8,7
5%
8,8 – 8,9
1%
9,0 ou plus
3%
7,9 ou moins 75%
8,0 – 8,1 12%
8,2–8,3 7.5%
8,6 – 8,7 5.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 janv. 2027
7,9 ou moins
$2,485 Vol.
75%
8,0 – 8,1
$562 Vol.
12%
8,2–8,3
$782 Vol.
8%
8,4 – 8,5
$206 Vol.
2%
8,6 – 8,7
$311 Vol.
5%
8,8 – 8,9
$208 Vol.
1%
9,0 ou plus
$166 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus assigns 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below because no earthquake exceeding 7.8 has occurred through mid-September, with the year’s largest events limited to a Mw 7.8 offshore Mindanao in June and Mw 7.7 near Flores, Indonesia. Global catalogs show roughly one Mw 8.0+ event annually on average, yet none have materialized despite ongoing subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Remaining time until year-end is short, and current USGS monitoring reveals only moderate aftershock sequences and smaller events (Mw 5–6.5) without precursors signaling rapid rupture of a major locked fault segment. While stochastic variability allows for a late-year great earthquake, the absence of recent Mw 8+ activity and typical inter-event intervals support the market’s strong weighting toward magnitudes staying below 8.0.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$4,720Date de fin
4 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus assigns 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below because no earthquake exceeding 7.8 has occurred through mid-September, with the year’s largest events limited to a Mw 7.8 offshore Mindanao in June and Mw 7.7 near Flores, Indonesia. Global catalogs show roughly one Mw 8.0+ event annually on average, yet none have materialized despite ongoing subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Remaining time until year-end is short, and current USGS monitoring reveals only moderate aftershock sequences and smaller events (Mw 5–6.5) without precursors signaling rapid rupture of a major locked fault segment. While stochastic variability allows for a late-year great earthquake, the absence of recent Mw 8+ activity and typical inter-event intervals support the market’s strong weighting toward magnitudes staying below 8.0.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$4,720Date de fin
4 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below because no earthquake exceeding 7.8 has occurred through mid-September, with the year’s largest events limited to a Mw 7.8 offshore Mindanao in June and Mw 7.7 near Flores, Indonesia. Global catalogs show roughly one Mw 8.0+ event annually on average, yet none have materialized despite ongoing subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Remaining time until year-end is short, and current USGS monitoring reveals only moderate aftershock sequences and smaller events (Mw 5–6.5) without precursors signaling rapid rupture of a major locked fault segment. While stochastic variability allows for a late-year great earthquake, the absence of recent Mw 8+ activity and typical inter-event intervals support the market’s strong weighting toward magnitudes staying below 8.0.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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