Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon features turnout markets spread across the 7.5M–9M range because of uncertainty over no-party-affiliation voter participation and midterm enthusiasm gaps. Recent polling averages show Moody ahead by roughly 5–7 points among likely voters, with some surveys tightening to within the margin of error as Nixon performs strongly with independents. Republican registration advantages, early and mail voting patterns, and get-out-the-vote intensity in a special election for the remainder of Marco Rubio’s term keep probabilities balanced. Separation in the coming weeks will likely depend on shifts in independent turnout or last-minute campaign mobilization before November 3.