Brazilian legal proceedings against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro have advanced slowly, with the long-standing rachadinha investigation effectively archived after Supreme Court and Superior Court of Justice rulings annulled key evidence years ago and rejected 2025 reopening attempts. A new April 2026 probe into alleged defamation of President Lula remains at the investigative stage under Justice Alexandre de Moraes, while a May tape scandal involving a banker has not produced formal charges. As a leading 2026 presidential candidate with parliamentary protections, Flávio faces procedural timelines and institutional hurdles that make swift indictment or arrest by late September unlikely, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 83% probability for “no.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
17% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
Oui
17% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian legal proceedings against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro have advanced slowly, with the long-standing rachadinha investigation effectively archived after Supreme Court and Superior Court of Justice rulings annulled key evidence years ago and rejected 2025 reopening attempts. A new April 2026 probe into alleged defamation of President Lula remains at the investigative stage under Justice Alexandre de Moraes, while a May tape scandal involving a banker has not produced formal charges. As a leading 2026 presidential candidate with parliamentary protections, Flávio faces procedural timelines and institutional hurdles that make swift indictment or arrest by late September unlikely, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 83% probability for “no.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Volume
$3,902Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian legal proceedings against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro have advanced slowly, with the long-standing rachadinha investigation effectively archived after Supreme Court and Superior Court of Justice rulings annulled key evidence years ago and rejected 2025 reopening attempts. A new April 2026 probe into alleged defamation of President Lula remains at the investigative stage under Justice Alexandre de Moraes, while a May tape scandal involving a banker has not produced formal charges. As a leading 2026 presidential candidate with parliamentary protections, Flávio faces procedural timelines and institutional hurdles that make swift indictment or arrest by late September unlikely, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 83% probability for “no.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,902Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazilian legal proceedings against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro have advanced slowly, with the long-standing rachadinha investigation effectively archived after Supreme Court and Superior Court of Justice rulings annulled key evidence years ago and rejected 2025 reopening attempts. A new April 2026 probe into alleged defamation of President Lula remains at the investigative stage under Justice Alexandre de Moraes, while a May tape scandal involving a banker has not produced formal charges. As a leading 2026 presidential candidate with parliamentary protections, Flávio faces procedural timelines and institutional hurdles that make swift indictment or arrest by late September unlikely, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 83% probability for “no.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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