**Jared Moskowitz secured a decisive victory in the August 18, 2026, FL-25 Democratic primary, winning 63.5% to Oliver Larkin’s 36.5% for a margin exceeding 27 points.** Redistricting under Governor Ron DeSantis shifted the coastal district spanning parts of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties into Republican-leaning territory (Trump +9 in 2024), prompting Democratic primary voters to consolidate behind the better-known, better-funded incumbent with proven general-election viability. Polling from June showed Moskowitz leading by 32 points, backed by superior fundraising, higher name recognition, and emphasis on affordability and electability over Larkin’s progressive platform as a Democratic Socialists of America-aligned challenger. Traders priced in this outcome based on these structural and campaign dynamics well before primary day, with the actual results aligning closely to pre-election surveys. Late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could have narrowed the margin modestly, but no credible factors emerged to alter the wide lead.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMoskowitz 25 %+ 100.0%
Moskowitz 20–25 % <1%
Moskowitz 15–20 % <1%
Moskowitz 10–15 % <1%
$55,600 Vol.
$55,600 Vol.
18 août 2026
Moskowitz 25 %+
Oui
Moskowitz 20–25 %
Non
Moskowitz 15–20 %
Non
Moskowitz 10–15 %
Non
Moskowitz 5–10 %
Non
Moskowitz <5%
Non
Larkin <5 %
Non
Larkin 5–10 %
Non
Larkin 10–15 %
Non
Larkin 15–20 %
Non
Larkin 20–25 %
Non
Larkin 25 %+
Non
Moskowitz 25 %+ 100.0%
Moskowitz 20–25 % <1%
Moskowitz 15–20 % <1%
Moskowitz 10–15 % <1%
$55,600 Vol.
$55,600 Vol.
18 août 2026
Moskowitz 25 %+
$47,863 Vol.
Oui
Moskowitz 20–25 %
$4,140 Vol.
Non
Moskowitz 15–20 %
$613 Vol.
Non
Moskowitz 10–15 %
$418 Vol.
Non
Moskowitz 5–10 %
$377 Vol.
Non
Moskowitz <5%
$430 Vol.
Non
Larkin <5 %
$439 Vol.
Non
Larkin 5–10 %
$230 Vol.
Non
Larkin 10–15 %
$285 Vol.
Non
Larkin 15–20 %
$247 Vol.
Non
Larkin 20–25 %
$278 Vol.
Non
Larkin 25 %+
$280 Vol.
Non
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Jared Moskowitz secured a decisive victory in the August 18, 2026, FL-25 Democratic primary, winning 63.5% to Oliver Larkin’s 36.5% for a margin exceeding 27 points.**
Redistricting under Governor Ron DeSantis shifted the coastal district spanning parts of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties into Republican-leaning territory (Trump +9 in 2024), prompting Democratic primary voters to consolidate behind the better-known, better-funded incumbent with proven general-election viability. Polling from June showed Moskowitz leading by 32 points, backed by superior fundraising, higher name recognition, and emphasis on affordability and electability over Larkin’s progressive platform as a Democratic Socialists of America-aligned challenger. Traders priced in this outcome based on these structural and campaign dynamics well before primary day, with the actual results aligning closely to pre-election surveys. Late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could have narrowed the margin modestly, but no credible factors emerged to alter the wide lead.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$55,600Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Jared Moskowitz secured a decisive victory in the August 18, 2026, FL-25 Democratic primary, winning 63.5% to Oliver Larkin’s 36.5% for a margin exceeding 27 points.**
Redistricting under Governor Ron DeSantis shifted the coastal district spanning parts of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties into Republican-leaning territory (Trump +9 in 2024), prompting Democratic primary voters to consolidate behind the better-known, better-funded incumbent with proven general-election viability. Polling from June showed Moskowitz leading by 32 points, backed by superior fundraising, higher name recognition, and emphasis on affordability and electability over Larkin’s progressive platform as a Democratic Socialists of America-aligned challenger. Traders priced in this outcome based on these structural and campaign dynamics well before primary day, with the actual results aligning closely to pre-election surveys. Late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could have narrowed the margin modestly, but no credible factors emerged to alter the wide lead.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$55,600Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
**Jared Moskowitz secured a decisive victory in the August 18, 2026, FL-25 Democratic primary, winning 63.5% to Oliver Larkin’s 36.5% for a margin exceeding 27 points.** Redistricting under Governor Ron DeSantis shifted the coastal district spanning parts of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties into Republican-leaning territory (Trump +9 in 2024), prompting Democratic primary voters to consolidate behind the better-known, better-funded incumbent with proven general-election viability. Polling from June showed Moskowitz leading by 32 points, backed by superior fundraising, higher name recognition, and emphasis on affordability and electability over Larkin’s progressive platform as a Democratic Socialists of America-aligned challenger. Traders priced in this outcome based on these structural and campaign dynamics well before primary day, with the actual results aligning closely to pre-election surveys. Late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could have narrowed the margin modestly, but no credible factors emerged to alter the wide lead.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre FL-25 de 2026 avec une avance de 6 % à 9 % ?
43%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre FL-26 de 2026 avec une marge de 0 % à 5 % ?
44%
Oui
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election by 35%-40%?
20%
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