Trader consensus strongly favors the Republican Party at 84% for the FL-04 House election winner, driven by the district's deep Republican lean (R+16 Cook PVI) and incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean's commanding 65%-35% victory in 2022. No polls have surfaced in recent weeks, but all nonpartisan ratings (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) classify it as Safe Republican, bolstered by Florida's overall GOP dominance in House races. The Democratic nominee trails significantly in fundraising and lacks competitive path-to-victory amid steady national trends favoring Republican House gains. With no major developments like scandals or endorsements in the past 30 days, probabilities remain stable ahead of the November 5 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourFL-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
FL-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
84%
Parti démocrate
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
84%
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus strongly favors the Republican Party at 84% for the FL-04 House election winner, driven by the district's deep Republican lean (R+16 Cook PVI) and incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean's commanding 65%-35% victory in 2022. No polls have surfaced in recent weeks, but all nonpartisan ratings (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) classify it as Safe Republican, bolstered by Florida's overall GOP dominance in House races. The Democratic nominee trails significantly in fundraising and lacks competitive path-to-victory amid steady national trends favoring Republican House gains. With no major developments like scandals or endorsements in the past 30 days, probabilities remain stable ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus strongly favors the Republican Party at 84% for the FL-04 House election winner, driven by the district's deep Republican lean (R+16 Cook PVI) and incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean's commanding 65%-35% victory in 2022. No polls have surfaced in recent weeks, but all nonpartisan ratings (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) classify it as Safe Republican, bolstered by Florida's overall GOP dominance in House races. The Democratic nominee trails significantly in fundraising and lacks competitive path-to-victory amid steady national trends favoring Republican House gains. With no major developments like scandals or endorsements in the past 30 days, probabilities remain stable ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors the Republican Party at 84% for the FL-04 House election winner, driven by the district's deep Republican lean (R+16 Cook PVI) and incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean's commanding 65%-35% victory in 2022. No polls have surfaced in recent weeks, but all nonpartisan ratings (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) classify it as Safe Republican, bolstered by Florida's overall GOP dominance in House races. The Democratic nominee trails significantly in fundraising and lacks competitive path-to-victory amid steady national trends favoring Republican House gains. With no major developments like scandals or endorsements in the past 30 days, probabilities remain stable ahead of the November 5 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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